We started the Thames Path this weekend, right up at the source near Cirencester, and the weather reports warned us that temperatures would be freezing.  So I wore long underwear.  We were pretty comfortable, though, not too cold.  I forgot I was wearing it.

So you naturally start thinking to yourself, maybe the long underwear was unnecessary?

Well, there’s an obvious fallacy here.  Very likely I was comfortable precisely because I had put on extra clothes; and this suggests a general principle.  When something is quietly going well in your life, some of the credit may be due to you. Not putting on too much weight?  Congratulations — you may have pretty good eating habits!  Getting along ok with friends and family?  Bravo — you may be a rather agreeable person!

[4 February 2015]